President Medvedev escalates the crisis in Russian-Ukrainian relations

On 11 August, the Kremlin press service released a special letter from president Dmitry Medvedev to president Viktor Yushchenko, in which the Russian leader claimed, in very harsh words, that the Ukrainian leadership was responsible for the crisis in Russian-Ukrainian relations, and suspended the departure of the new Russian ambassador to Kyiv. On the same day president Medvedev repeated his criticism of Yushchenko in a video posted in his video blog. Extremely critical and unexpected, the Russian president's statement symbolically marks the start of Russia's involvement in the campaign before the presidential elections in Ukraine in January 2010. In this way, Moscow is sending a signal to the main candidates, indicating that it expects the new Ukrainian leadership to fundamentally revise its policy on Russia.

President Medvedev wrote that during Viktor Yushchenko's presidency Ukraine deliberately "abandoned the principles of friendship and partnership with Russia". He also pointed to a number of actions by Ukraine which in his opinion were anti-Russian including the supplies of weapons to and support for Georgia during the war in South Ossetia, as a result of which Ukraine became "co-responsible for the crimes committed"; Ukraine's aspirations to NATO membership; measures impeding the operation of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea; efforts to revise energy relations and signing the gas memorandum with the EU; and finally, violations of the rights of Russian investors in Ukraine. President Medvedev also accused the Ukrainian head of state of falsifying history, taking measures designed to remove the Russian language from public life and the media, and interfering with the affairs of the Orthodox Church.
In response to the 'anti-Russian line of the Ukrainian leadership', including the expulsion of two Russian diplomats from Ukraine this July (to which Russia reacted with an analogous measure), president Medvedev postponed the departure to Kyiv of the new Russian ambassador to Ukraine, Mikhail Zurabov, who obtained Ukraine's agrément several days ago. This means that Moscow has decided to postpone the start of his mission until the results of the Ukrainian presidential election are known. The recent expulsion of two Russian diplomats apparently is only a pretext here because immediately after it occurred, it caused no rise of tension between Moscow and Kyiv.
The unprecedented letter by the Russian leader (the impact of which the Presidential Administration and the Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs have tried to mitigate by saying 'it did not imply freezing or breaking diplomatic relations') have come unexpectedly. Russia has raised the allegations against Ukraine on many occasions before. Through the letter, Moscow has sent a clear signal to the entire Ukrainian political elite, indicating that it expects the new Ukrainian leadership to take into account Russia's key interests, especially in the energy and security spheres. Moreover, with this harsh statement by the Russian president Moscow has become involved with the election campaign in Ukraine and hopes to make relations with Russia an important issue in the campaign. Thus, Ukrainian politicians have been forced to take a stance on this specific 'attack'. Viktor Yanukovych clearly and very quickly declared he was ready to fulfil Medvedev's expectations. President Yushchenko's response is forthcoming, and the Ukrainian public opinion will also expect PM Tymoshenko to take a position. Even if the Ukrainian prime minister as usual avoids making a clear statement on the issue, this will be raised by her opponents and assessed by voters.

Wojciech Konończuk
Co-operation: Anna Górska

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