The parliamentary elections in Estonia

The ruling Estonian Reform Party led by Taavi Roivas won the parliamentary elections held in Estonia on 1 March. This liberal party which opts for co-operation with the EU and NATO has secured 30 of the 101 seats in parliament. The pro-Russian Estonian Centre Party led by the mayor of Tallinn Edgar Savisaar (the party co-operates with the pro-Kremlin party, a United Russia and has not condemned the annexation of Crimea) came in second with 27 seats. The Social Democratic party which co-rules with the reformists came in third with 15 seats. The right-wing Union of Pro Patria and Res Publica will also have seats (14) in parliament for another term as well as two populist parties which are making their debut in parliament: the Estonian Freedom Party (8 seats) and the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (7 seats).

Commentary                                                                              

• The victory of the ruling Estonian Reform Party proves that the situation in Ukraine has turned this pro-Western party which focuses on security policy (2% of GDP on military spending, training with the participation of allied armies, adapting legislation to current threats), into Estonians’ guarantor of state stability. The fact that the reformists have remained in power is a signal for Estonia’s Western allies that Estonia’s pro-Western political course will be maintained, despite the popularity of the pro-Russia opposition Estonian Centre Party, whose leader as the only politician in Estonia’s mainstream politics who does not support Ukraine and accepts the Kremlin’s policy, including the annexation of Crimea.
• Security and Eastern policy provided the background for the major debate over economic and social issues (boosting the economy, taxes, increased state support for citizens, facilitating solutions in naturalisation policy). The fact that two new parties have entered parliament and have a total of 15 seats as well as an increase in the electorate of the centrists indicates that Estonians expect change after an austerity period linked with efforts to join the eurozone and the economic crisis. The Estonian Centre Party put the most emphasis on the need to redress economic and social policies. Its agenda is focused not only on supporting the Russian-speaking minority—for years it has been filled with social populism – introducing progressive taxation, preventing unemployment, increasing the minimum wage to 1000 euros. The centrist leader, Edgar Savisaar, who has introduced free public transport in Tallinn, rallied the largest support among politicians, eclipsing Prime Minister Roivas. A similar political manifesto, populist in social issues, was presented by two parties that are new to parliament – the Estonian Freedom Party and the nationalist Conservative People’s Party of Estonia.
• Prime Minister Roivas has been entrusted with the mission of forming the government. Having lost as many as seven seats in parliament, the reformists and Social Democrats that used to form the coalition will not be able to rule alone. The presence of two new parties in parliament provides the opportunity to establish a coalition in different configurations; all of which would, though, have three or four parties. The Social Democrats, the Union of Pro Patria and Res Public, and the Estonian Freedom Party are said to be potential partners for the reformists in the government, even though differences between their political programmes are quite large. Due to the scandal following the elections over the statement made by one of the members of the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia which justified fascism, the prime minister is not holding coalition talks with them. He has also ruled out talks with the centrists, thus ruling out the only possible scenario for a two-party coalition.

Appendix

The results of the elections (turnout: 63.7%)