Defence and determination

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has continued for over 30 months, without a clear outcome in sight. Following the unsuccessful Ukrainian offensive in the autumn of 2023, the Russians have taken the initiative on the frontlines; however, no strategic breakthrough has been achieved. In addition to the gruelling positional warfare on land, the Russians have launched devastating air attacks on civilian infrastructure, including the energy sector, in an effort to weaken Ukraine’s resolve to resist during the winter. Ukraine has responded beyond its available capacity, yet the defensive effort is gradually depleting the country’s forces and reserves. Both the Ukrainian public and politicians were united during the first months of the war, and the reclaim of some territories further bolstered this unity. However, trust in the leadership has waned in the third year of the invasion, and critical voices have emerged among their opponents. There are growing challenges within the Ukrainian army, which is internally divided, underequipped, and lacking well-trained new recruits. Additionally, relations between those directly involved in the defensive effort and the supporting personnel are increasingly strained. Dissatisfaction and impatience are emerging, though not a desire to capitulate. While Ukrainians are becoming increasingly weary of the war and more inclined to support negotiations with the aggressor, a significant majority have no intention of yielding territory to the enemy, let alone abandoning sovereignty.