Hostages to Moscow, clients of Beijing. Security in Central Asia as the role of the West diminishes

The end of the Western military presence in Central Asia will mean the West’s influence on the security sphere in the region will be marginalised and it will also actually withdraw from the geopolitical rivalry. With regard to the architecture of security, a more active stance from China should not be expected, as it is unwilling to confront Russia, is aware of its own limitations in this sphere and views the United States as its main global rival. In a timeframe of the next few years, Russia’s policy will be the decisive factor influencing the security system in the region. One of its goals will be a drive to strengthen its military presence and to widen cooperation within the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. Although it is likely that Russia will dominate the dimension of Central Asia’s security architecture, this will not be synonymous with Russia taking over actual responsibility for security and certainly not with it undertaking efforts to solve regional problems.