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Analyses | | Kamil Kłysiński

Lukashenka agrees to make crucial concessions to Russia

In the absence of prospects for economic recovery and a return to dialogue with the West, it will be extremely difficult for Lukashenka to inhibit the further expansion of Russian capital, which is tantamount to a significant reduction…
Analyses | | Kamil Kłysiński, Piotr Żochowski

Lukashenka increases the role of the power ministries

In the past two months, the President of Belarus Alyaksandr Lukashenka has taken a number of steps to strengthen and modify the role of the power ministries in managing the state and enhancing the military factor in the functioning of…
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

Systemic crisis in Alexander Lukashenkos regime

The lack of freedom of manoeuvre in foreign policy, no possibility to maintain a costly economic model and the lack of support from the majority of society all prove that Alexander Lukashenko's regime is in severe crisis.
Analyses | | Kamil Kłysiński

Minsk boycotts the Eastern Partnership summit

Only the Belarusian opposition was present at the summit. The EU member states unanimously adopted a declaration in which they reiterated their conditions for returning to dialogue with Minsk. Meanwhile a draft EU aid package for Belarus…
Analyses | | Kamil Kłysiński

The Belarusian governments attempts to get out of the economic crisis

The Belarusian government is still not ready to undertake root-and-branch reform of the system, and is restricting itself to taking ad hoc measures. In addition, record inflation and a drop in real wages pose a risk of social discontent…
Analyses | | Kamil Kłysiński

The Belarusian government signals its readiness to talk with the West

Via the Bulgarian Foreign Ministry, the regime has spent the last few weeks probing the options for improving relations between Minsk and Brussels. Both the Belarusian opposition and the EU’s diplomats have made their positions dependent…
Analyses | | Kamil Kłysiński

Social discontent rising in Belarus a threat to the regime

The Belarusian public’s growing dissatisfaction with the economic situation could lead to wider social protests this autumn. This may open up room for manoeuvre for the Belarusian nomenklatura and for external actors, mainly Russia.
Analyses | | Kamil Kłysiński, Wojciech Konończuk

The Belarusian crisis is an opportunity for Russia

The loan is to be made in several tranches over the next three years. As Belarus’s sole possible creditor at this time, Moscow has presented its action as economic support for the crisis-ridden Belarusian economy. However, in return for…
Analyses | | Kamil Kłysiński

The president of Belarus continues repression and strengthens authoritarian system of government

Fearing a weakening of the system, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka continues his policy of repression, which is leading to international self-isolation of Belarus; however, in the coming months, the growing financial crisis may force Minsk…
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

On the verge of crisis Mounting economic problems in Belarus

Belarus’s financial condition has visibly worsened since the beginning of this year. The severe falls in the country’s foreign currency reserves and its shortage of foreign currency on the international market pose an increasing threat to…