Renewal of the pro-European ruling coalition in Moldova

On 30 December 2010, the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), the Democratic Party (PD) and the Liberal Party (PL) concluded an agreement to renew the governing coalition, the Alliance for European Integration (AIE). This means that the government in Chisinau will still be run by political forces the main objective of which is integration with the EU. However, it is unclear whether they will be able to break the political and constitutional deadlock which for the last two years has prevented the election of a President and repeatedly lead to early parliamentary elections. Now, though, circumstances seem somewhat more favourable for a solution to the crisis to be worked out between the AIE and the Communist Party. However, if Parliament again fails to elect a President, further early elections will have to be called before the end of this year, and the AIE will be unable to implement its promised pro-European reforms.

According to the coalition agreement, the head of the PLD, Vladimir Filat, will once again lead the government. The DPM chairman Marian Lupu is the Alliance’s candidate for President, and until he is elected to that position, he will be the speaker of Parliament and acting President. After Lupu’s election as President, the head of the PL, Mihai Ghimpu, will become the speaker of parliament. The PLD will have seven Ministers, the DP five (as well as the post of Prosecutor General), and the PL four (as well as the post of Deputy Prime Minister without portfolio).

To elect a President and thus avoid early general elections, the coalition must look for a compromise with the Moldovan Communist Party (PCRM). The difficulty is that this compromise must not be achieved at the cost of the AIE giving up its pro-European path. It seems that PCRM should be interested in avoiding more early elections because the previous ones have only led to a reduction of its parliamentary representation. There are however two major obstacles to an agreement: a strong aversion within the the PCRM towards Marian Lupu and fundamental differences between the PCRM’s and the AIE’s political platforms. It seems therefore that at this time the chances for a compromise involving an election of the President on the one hand, and for a continuing deadlock leading to another early parliamentary elections on the other, are roughly equal. <wrod>