Winning the war with Russia (is still possible)

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine aims to subjugate or destroy Ukraine, overturn the current political and security order in Europe, and fundamentally revise the global order. The conflict is systemic in nature and will continue as long as the dictatorial Putin regime operates in Moscow. Although Russia has not achieved its strategic goals, it is not giving up on its aggressive plans. The key issue is to weaken Moscow’s ability to wage war and, in the long run, to change its regime. Actions should include a short-term accumulation of pressure on Russia and support for Ukraine to enable Kyiv’s counteroffensive and a ceasefire on favourable terms. The pause in the war should be used in the medium term to weaken Russia and strengthen Ukraine. A long-term confrontation between the West and Russia in the political, economic, and security fields should lead to Moscow’s strategic defeat. This requires further consolidation of the community of Western states, acceptance of its goals by societies, and the construction of a global coalition of states defending the basic principles of the international order.